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Monthly economic roundup

08-Oct-2013

Welcome to our September monthly economic round up e-newsletter, featuring the latest market insights and all the relevant financial and economic information we think may be of interest. You can find the market analysis just for you in one handy place, follow the links below.

UK and Ireland Housing Markets

Contents

UK House Price Indices
UK Regional House Prices Comparison
UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume
UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey
UK House Prices Forecast
Ireland House Price Indices

UK House Price Indices

Land Registry’s house price index increased by +0.12% in August, compared with Nationwide’s last month’s release of an increase of +0.69%. Nationwide’s most recent release for September is an increase of +0.89%, in line with a survey conducted by Bloomberg that predicted an increase of +0.5%. Nationwide said that the annual rate of house price growth rose to 5%, the strongest pace since July 2010, and that there are also signs that the pickup is becoming increasingly broad-based. Halifax recorded a +0.40% increase in average house prices in August.

The national average asking prices recorded by Rightmove decreased by -1.53% in September. Rightmove recorded a -1.5% reduction in average asking prices in London (London average of £493.7k vs. national average of £245.5k).

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Dec 12 to date

Peak Month

Peak to now

Peak to Trough

Halifax

Aug-13

0.40%

6.21%

4.28%

Aug-07

-14.71%

-22.51%

Nationwide SA

Sep-13

0.89%

5.01%

4.37%

Oct-07

-8.13%

-19.40%

Lreg

Aug13

0.12%

1.26%

2.61%

Nov-07

-9.48%

-17.05%

Rightmove

Sep-13

-1.53%

4.50%

7.19%

Jul-13

-3.25%

-15.79%

DCLG SA

Jul-13

1.37%

3.29%

3.53%

Jan-08

-0.27%

-15.09%

AcadHPI

Aug-13

0.38%

3.21%

2.42%

Aug-13

0.00%

-14.35%

 
graph-34-economic-round-up

Sources: Bloomberg, Land Registry, Acadametrics

UK Regional House Prices Comparison

According to Land Registry’s figures in August, house prices in the North West increased the most (+1.33%) whereas those in Wales dropped the most (-2.11%). House prices in London have continued to reach new highs in August.

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

East

Aug-13

-1.20%

0.89%

-9.02%

East Midlands

Aug-13

0.40%

0.73%

-14.37%

London

Aug-13

1.17%

7.06%

12.07%

North East

Aug-13

-1.40%

-2.23%

-23.76%

North West

Aug-13

1.33%

-1.45%

-19.99%

South East

Aug-13

0.35%

1.84%

-4.95%

South West

Aug-13

0.12%

1.30%

-10.05%

Wales

Aug-13

-2.11%

-1.84%

-18.72%

West Midlands

Aug-13

0.08%

1.81%

-14.25%

Yorks and Humber

Aug-13

1.10%

-0.71%

-18.42%

 
graph-35-economic-round-up

Note: Figures taken from Land Registry’s regional house prices development for England & Wales. Index re-based to 100 at October 2007.
Source: Land Registry

UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume

Mortgage approvals increased by +2.2% to 62,226 in August, higher than a consensus forecast of 61,500 by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales volume data provided by Land Registry is at a lag and the most recently released data is from June, recording a MoM decrease of -6.5%.

 

Land Reg Sales Volume

BoE Mortgage Approvals

Last Release

Jun-13

Aug-13

Sales Volume

60,168

62,226

MoM % Change

-6.5%

2.2%

YoY % Change

0.5%

30.6%

Peak Month

May-02

Dec-03

Peak Volume

135,468

133,875

Peak to Now % Change

-55.6%

-53.5%

Peak to Trough % Change

-80.6%

-80.4%

 
graph-36-economic-round-up

Sources: Land Registry, Bloomberg

UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey

The Housing Market Survey provided by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors provides an indication to market sentiment. This sentiment measure increased to 40 in August from 37 in July. This is the highest level the figure has been at since 2006.

The figure represents the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in price minus those reporting a fall (i.e. if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the unadjusted balance will be 25%).

graph-37-economic-round-up

Note: Balance = proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall.
Source: Bloomberg

UK House Prices Forecast

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasts UK house prices to increase 12% over the next 4 years. CEBR’s prediction on house prices between 2013 to 2016 is:

Year

2013

2014

2015

2016

Prediction

+2.2%

+2.6%

+2.8%

+3.8%

Source: Centre For Economics and Business Research

Ireland House Price Indices

Residential property prices in Dublin increased in August by +1.93% (cf. +3.32% in July). Nationally residential prices increased by +0.90%; this compared with an increase of +1.22% in July. Prices for apartments in Dublin stayed unchanged in August (cf. -2.25% in June) and on a national level apartment prices rose by +0.60% (cf. -0.80% in June).

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

Peak Month

Peak to Now

National All

Aug-13

0.90%

2.76%

-48.50%

Sep-07

-48.66%

Dublin All

Aug-13

1.93%

10.65%

-52.37%

Feb-07

-52.86%

National ex Dublin

Aug-13

0.15%

-2.60%

-47.39%

Sep-07

-47.59%

National Apartments

Aug-13

0.60%

6.61%

-58.85%

Feb-07

-59.64%

Dublin Apartments

Aug-13

0.00%

10.15%

-57.50%

Feb-07

-59.11%

National Houses

Aug-13

0.87%

2.65%

-46.88%

Sep-07

-47.12%

Dublin Houses

Aug-13

2.13%

10.53%

-50.81%

Apr-07

-51.23%

National ex Dublin Houses

Aug-13

0.00%

-2.54%

-46.51%

Sep-07

-46.80%

 
graph-38-economic-round-up

Source: Central Statistics Office Ireland

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