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Monthly economic roundup

07-Nov-2013

Welcome to our October monthly economic round up e-newsletter, featuring the latest market insights and all the relevant financial and economic information we think may be of interest. You can find the market analysis just for you in one handy place, follow the links below.

UK and Ireland Housing Markets

Contents

UK House Price Indices
UK Regional House Prices Comparison
UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume
UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey
UK House Prices Forecast
Ireland House Price Indices

UK House Price Indices

Land Registry’s house price index increased by +1.47% in September, compared with Nationwide’s last month’s release of an increase of +0.89%. Nationwide’s most recent release for October is an increase of +1.02%, higher than a survey conducted by Bloomberg that predicted an increase of +0.7%. Nationwide said that the UK housing market appears to be following the more resilient upward trend evident in the wider economy in recent quarters. Halifax recorded a +0.35% increase in average house prices in September.

 

The national average asking prices recorded by Rightmove increased by +2.85% in October. Rightmove recorded a +10.2% increase in average asking prices in London (London average of £544.2k vs. national average of £252.4k).

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Dec 12 to date

Peak Month

Peak to now

Peak to Trough

Halifax

Sep-13

0.35%

6.60%

4.58%

Aug-07

-14.46%

-22.51%

Nationwide SA

Oct-13

1.02%

5.43%

5.47%

Oct-07

-7.05%

-19.40%

Lreg

Sep-13

1.47%

3.43%

4.14%

Nov-07

-8.12%

-17.07%

Rightmove

Oct-13

2.85%

3.84%

10.25%

Jul-13

-0.48%

-15.79%

DCLG SA

Aug-13

0.54%

3.74%

4.09%

Aug-13

0.00%

-15.32%

AcadHPI

Aug-13

0.38%

3.21%

2.42%

Aug-13

0.00%

-14.35%

 
graph-29-economic-round-up

Sources: Bloomberg, Land Registry, Acadametrics

UK Regional House Prices Comparison

According to Land Registry’s figures in September, house prices in the North East increased the most (+2.67%) whereas those in Wales dropped the most (-0.39%). House prices in London have continued to reach new highs in September.

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

East

Sep-13

1.60%

3.88%

-6.70%

East Midlands

Sep-13

-0.07%

1.41%

-14.81%

London

Sep-13

1.89%

9.33%

13.35%

North East

Sep-13

2.67%

1.25%

-21.57%

North West

Sep-13

0.70%

-0.59%

-19.41%

South East

Sep-13

1.92%

4.35%

-3.36%

South West

Sep-13

0.32%

2.12%

-9.87%

Wales

Sep-13

-0.39%

-1.66%

-17.78%

West Midlands

Sep-13

-0.03%

1.96%

-14.66%

Yorks and Humber

Sep-13

0.96%

1.59%

-17.76%

 
graph-30-economic-round-up

Note: Figures taken from Land Registry’s regional house prices development for England & Wales. Index re-based to 100 at October 2007.
Source: Land Registry

UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume

Mortgage approvals increased by +5.3% to 66,735 in September, higher than a consensus forecast of 66,000 by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales volume data provided by Land Registry is at a lag and the most recently released data is from July, recording a MoM increase of +9.2%.

 

Land Reg Sales Volume

BoE Mortgage Approvals

Last Release

Jul-13

Sep-13

Sales Volume

69,140

66,735

MoM % Change

9.2%

5.3%

YoY % Change

16.9%

33.9%

Peak Month

May-02

Dec-03

Peak Volume

135,474

133,915

Peak to Now % Change

-49.0%

-50.2%

Peak to Trough % Change

-80.6%

-80.1%

 
graph-31-economic-round-up

Sources: Land Registry, Bloomberg

UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey

The Housing Market Survey provided by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors provides an indication to market sentiment. This sentiment measure increased to 54 in September from 41 in August. This is the highest level the figure has been at since 2003.

 

The figure represents the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in price minus those reporting a fall (i.e. if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the unadjusted balance will be 25%).

graph-32-economic-round-up

Note: Balance = proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall.
Source: Bloomberg

UK House Prices Forecast

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasted UK house prices to increase 15.15% by 2017. CEBR’s and other providers’ predictions on house prices between 2013 to 2018 is:

Provider

Date of Forecast

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017
Savills Feb-13 0.50% 1.50% 2.00% 3.50% 3.50%
Knight Frank Dec-12 -2.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.50% 4.20%
OBR Mar-13 1.30% 1.60% 3.30% 4.00% 4.00%
Hometrack Dec-12 -1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00%  
CEBR Apr-13 1.40% 2.25% 3.00% 4.00% 4.50%

Source: Savills, Knight Frank, Office for Budget Responsibility, Hometrack, Centre For Economics and Business Research

Ireland House Price Indices

Residential property prices in Dublin increased in September by +3.94% (cf. +1.93% in August). Nationally residential prices increased by +1.79%; this compared with an increase of +0.90% in August. Prices for apartments in Dublin rose by +0.96% in September (cf. no change in August) and on a national level apartment prices dropped by -0.14% (cf. +0.60% in August).

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

Peak Month

Peak to Now

National All

Sep-13

1.79%

3.65%

-47.58%

Sep-07

-47.74%

Dublin All

Sep-13

3.94%

12.27%

-50.49%

Feb-07

-51.00%

National ex Dublin

Sep-13

-0.15%

-2.60%

-47.47%

Sep-07

-47.67%

National Apartments

Sep-13

1.80%

8.53%

-58.11%

Feb-07

-58.92%

Dublin Apartments

Sep-13

0.96%

10.97%

-57.10%

Feb-07

-58.71%

National Houses

Sep-13

1.72%

3.35%

-45.97%

Sep-07

-46.21%

Dublin Houses

Sep-13

4.17%

12.18%

-48.76%

Apr-07

-49.20%

National ex Dublin Houses

Sep-13

-0.14%

-2.55%

-46.59%

Sep-07

-46.88%

 
graph-33-economic-round-up

Source: Central Statistics Office Ireland

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