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Monthly economic roundup

07-Dec-2013

Welcome to our November monthly economic round up e-newsletter, featuring the latest market insights and all the relevant financial and economic information we think may be of interest. You can find the market analysis just for you in one handy place, follow the links below.

UK and Ireland Housing Markets

Contents

UK House Price Indices
UK Regional House Prices Comparison
UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume
UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey
UK House Prices Forecast
Ireland House Price Indices

UK House Price Indices

Land Registry’s house price index decreased by -0.24% in October, compared with Nationwide’s last month’s release of an increase of +1.02%. Nationwide’s most recent release for November is an increase of +0.58%, in line with a survey conducted by Bloomberg that predicted an increase of +0.6%. Nationwide said that activity in the housing market has picked up strongly in recent months. Halifax recorded a +0.71% increase in average house prices in October.

 

The national average asking prices recorded by Rightmove decreased by -2.48% in November. Rightmove recorded a -5.0% decrease in average asking prices in London (London average of £517.3k vs. national average of £246.2k).

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Dec 12 to date

Peak Month

Peak to now

Peak to Trough

Halifax

Oct-13

0.71%

8.06%

5.34%

Aug-07

-13.84%

-22.51%

Nationwide SA

Nov-13

0.58%

6.40%

6.33%

Oct-07

-6.49%

-19.40%

Lreg

Oct-13

-0.24%

3.06%

3.20%

Nov-07

-8.96%

-17.09%

Rightmove

Nov-13

-2.48%

4.00%

7.51%

Jul-13

-2.96%

-15.79%

DCLG SA

Sep-13

-0.59%

3.76%

3.47%

Aug-13

-0.59%

-15.32%

AcadHPI

Oct-13

0.58%

4.30%

3.93%

Oct-13

0.00%

-15.57%

 
graph-24-economic-round-up

Sources: Bloomberg, Land Registry, Acadametrics

UK Regional House Prices Comparison

According to Land Registry’s figures in October, house prices in the Wales increased the most (+2.40%) whereas those in North East dropped the most (-3.15%). House prices in London have continued to reach new highs in October.

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

East

Oct-13

0.57%

3.17%

-6.93%

East Midlands

Oct-13

0.44%

2.18%

-14.39%

London

Oct-13

0.17%

8.72%

12.57%

North East

Oct-13

-3.15%

-0.84%

-25.47%

North West

Oct-13

-1.00%

-0.66%

-20.56%

South East

Oct-13

-0.26%

3.98%

-4.26%

South West

Oct-13

0.43%

2.42%

-10.06%

Wales

Oct-13

2.40%

0.30%

-16.05%

West Midlands

Oct-13

0.31%

1.04%

-14.77%

Yorks and Humber

Oct-13

-0.55%

1.07%

-18.18%

 
graph-25-economic-round-up

Note: Figures taken from Land Registry’s regional house prices development for England & Wales. Index re-based to 100 at October 2007.
Source: Land Registry

UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume

Mortgage approvals increased by +1.2% to 67,701 in October, lower than a consensus forecast of 68,500 by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales volume data provided by Land Registry is at a lag and the most recently released data is from August, recording a MoM increase of +4.6%.

 

Land Reg Sales Volume

BoE Mortgage Approvals

Last Release

Aug-13

Oct-13

Sales Volume

74,767

67,701

MoM % Change

4.6%

1.2%

YoY % Change

15.0%

29.2%

Peak Month

May-02

Dec-03

Peak Volume

135,478

133,917

Peak to Now % Change

-44.8%

-49.4%

Peak to Trough % Change

-80.6%

-80.1%

 
graph-26-economic-round-up

Sources: Land Registry, Bloomberg

UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey

The Housing Market Survey provided by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors provides an indication to market sentiment. This sentiment measure increased to 57 in October from 53 in September. This is the highest level the figure has been at since 2003.

 

The figure represents the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in price minus those reporting a fall (i.e. if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the unadjusted balance will be 25%).

graph-27-economic-round-up

Note: Balance = proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall.Source: Bloomberg

UK House Prices Forecast

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasted UK house prices to increase 15.15% by 2017. CEBR’s and other providers’ predictions on house prices between 2013 to 2018 is:

Provider

Date of Forecast

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017
Savills Feb-13 0.50% 1.50% 2.00% 3.50% 3.50%
Knight Frank Dec-13 7.00% 7.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00%
OBR Mar-13 1.30% 1.60% 3.30% 4.00% 4.00%
Hometrack Dec-12 -1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00%  
CEBR Apr-13 1.40% 2.25% 3.00% 4.00% 4.50%

Source: Savills, Knight Frank, Office for Budget Responsibility, Hometrack, Centre For Economics and Business Research

Ireland House Price Indices

Residential property prices in Dublin increased in October by +2.28% (cf. +3.94% in September). Nationally residential prices increased by +1.76%; this compared with an increase of +1.79% in September. Prices for apartments in Dublin rose by +5.89% in October (cf. +0.96% in September) and on a national level apartment prices rose by +3.34% (cf. -0.14% in September).

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

Peak Month

Peak to Now

National All

Oct-13

1.76%

6.12%

-46.66%

Sep-07

-46.82%

Dublin All

Oct-13

2.28%

15.02%

-49.36%

Feb-07

-49.89%

National ex Dublin

Oct-13

1.48%

-0.29%

-46.69%

Sep-07

-46.89%

National Apartments

Oct-13

3.34%

11.68%

-56.71%

Feb-07

-57.55%

Dublin Apartments

Oct-13

5.89%

18.01%

-54.57%

Feb-07

-56.28%

National Houses

Oct-13

1.83%

5.86%

-44.98%

Sep-07

-45.23%

Dublin Houses

Oct-13

2.00%

14.61%

-47.73%

Apr-07

-48.19%

National ex Dublin Houses

Oct-13

1.60%

-0.14%

-45.74%

Sep-07

-46.03%

 
graph-28-economic-round-up

Source: Central Statistics Office Ireland

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