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Monthly Economic Roundup

11-Jun-2014

Welcome to our May monthly economic round up, featuring the latest market insights and all the relevant financial and economic information we think may be of interest. You can find the market analysis just for you in one handy place, follow the links below.

UK and Ireland Housing Markets

Contents

UK House Price Indices
UK Regional House Prices Comparison
UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume
UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey
UK House Prices Forecast
Ireland House Price Indices

UK House Price Indices

Land Registry’s house price index increased by +1.76% in April, compared to Nationwide’s last month's figure of +1.16%. Nationwide’s most recent release for May shows an increase of +0.77%, in line with a survey conducted by Bloomberg that predicted an increase of +0.6%. Nationwide said that there are tentative signs of the housing market starting to slow with mortgage approvals continuing to drop in April potentially as a result of the MMR however they see demand for homes as likely to remain strong. Halifax recorded a +3.48% increase in average house prices in April.

The national average asking prices recorded by Rightmove increased by +3.56% in May. Rightmove recorded a +3.30% increase in average asking prices in London (London average of £592.8k vs. national average of £272.0k).

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Dec 13 to date

Peak Month

Peak to now

Peak to Trough

Halifax

Apr-14 3.48% 11.01% 6.21%

Aug-07

-7.59%

-22.51%

Nationwide SA

May-14 0.77% 11.10% 4.01%

Oct-07

-0.94%

-19.45%

Lreg

Apr-14

1.76% 6.68% 3.28%

Nov-07

-5.24%

-17.14%

Rightmove

May-14

3.56% 8.85% 12.62%

May-14

0.00%

-21.46%

DCLG SA

Mar-14

-0.42% 7.95% 1.54% Feb-14 -0.42%

-18.05%

AcadHPI

Apr-14

0.31% 7.29% 3.62%

Apr-14

0.00%

-20.62%

 
graph-1-economic-round-up-aug-2014

Sources: Bloomberg, Land Registry, Acadametrics

UK Regional House Prices Comparison

According to Land Registry’s figures in April, house prices in London increased the most, by +4.93%; whereas those in North East dropped the most, falling by -0.32%. House prices in London have continued to reach new highs in April.

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

East Anglia

Apr-14 1.63% 7.73% -2.49%

East Midlands

Apr-14 1.35% 6.47% -11.26%

London

Apr-14 4.93% 16.94% 25.39%

North East

Apr-14 -0.32% 2.79% -23.29%

North West

Apr-14 2.77% 3.78% -17.79%

South East

Apr-14 2.00% 7.48% 0.03%

South West

Apr-14 -0.03% 3.81% -7.73%

Wales

Apr-14 3.82% 2.98% -15.58%

West Midlands

Apr-14 1.24% 5.67% -11.37%

Yorks and Humber

Apr-14 2.69% 5.54% -16.24%
 
graph-7-economic-round-up

Note: Figures taken from Land Registry’s regional house prices development for England & Wales. Index re-based to 100 at October 2007.
Source: Land Registry

UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume

Mortgage approvals decreased by -6.28% to 62,918 in April, lower than a consensus forecast of 64,500 by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales volume data provided by Land Registry is at a lag and the most recently released data is from January, recording a MoM decrease of -18.91%.

 

Land Reg Sales Volume

BoE Mortgage Approvals

Last Release

Jan-14 Apr-14

Sales Volume

63,123 62,918

MoM % Change

-18.9% -6.3%

YoY % Change

45.5% 14.8%

Peak Month

May-02 Nov-03

Peak Volume

135,519 133,453

Peak to Now % Change

-53.4% -52.9%

Peak to Trough % Change

-80.6% -80.1%
 
graph-3-economic-round-up-aug-2014

Sources: Land Registry, Bloomberg

UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey

The Housing Market Survey, provided by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, provides an indication of market sentiment. This sentiment measure decreased to 54 in April from 57 in March.

The figure represents the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in price minus those reporting a fall (i.e. if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the unadjusted balance will be 25%).

graph-4-economic-round-up-aug-2014

Note: Balance = proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall.
Source: Bloomberg

UK House Prices Forecast

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasted UK house prices to increase 13.75% by 2017. CEBR’s and other providers’ predictions on house prices between 2014 to 2018 are:

Provider

Date of Forecast

2014

2015

2016

2017
Savills Feb-13 1.50% 2.00% 3.50% 3.50%
Knight Frank Dec-13 7.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00%
OBR Dec-13 5.20% 7.20% 4.80% 3.70%
Hometrack Apr-13 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 4.00%
CEBR Apr-13 2.25% 3.00% 4.00% 4.50%

Source: Savills, Knight Frank, Office for Budget Responsibility, Hometrack, Centre For Economics and Business Research

Ireland House Price Indices

Residential property prices in Dublin increased by +3.13% in April (cf. flat in March). Nationally, residential prices increased by +1.45%, compared with a drop of -0.72% in March. Prices for apartments in Dublin rose by +2.64% in April (cf. -2.07% in March), while apartment prices on the national level rose by +2.27% (cf. -1.49% in March).

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

Peak Month

Peak to Now

National All

Apr-14 1.45% 8.51% -46.12%

Sep-07

-46.28%

Dublin All

Apr-14 3.13% 17.66% -47.93%

Feb-07

-48.48%

National ex Dublin

Apr-14 -0.29% 1.35% -47.16%

Sep-07

-47.36%

National Apartments

Apr-14 2.27% 11.78% -55.47%

Feb-07

-56.34%

Dublin Apartments

Apr-14 2.64% 17.54% -52.45%

Feb-07

-54.24%

National Houses

Apr-14 1.39% 8.32% -44.52%

Sep-07

-44.77%

Dublin Houses

Apr-14 3.09% 17.82% -46.27%

Apr-07

-46.73%

National ex Dublin Houses

Apr-14 -0.29% 1.46% -46.20%

Sep-07

-46.49%
 
graph-5-economic-round-up

Source: Central Statistics Office Ireland

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