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Monthly economic roundup

08-Apr-2014

Welcome to our March monthly economic round up, featuring the latest market insights and all the relevant financial and economic information we think may be of interest. You can find the market analysis just for you in one handy place, follow the links below.

UK and Ireland Housing Markets

Contents

UK House Price Indices
UK Regional House Prices Comparison
UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume
UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey
UK House Prices Forecast
Ireland House Price Indices

UK House Price Indices

Land Registry’s house price index increased by +0.66% in February, compared with Nationwide’s last month’s release of a +0.65% rise. Nationwide’s most recent release for March is an increase of +0.45%, lower than a survey conducted by Bloomberg that predicted an increase of +0.8%. Nationwide said there is little doubt that the recovery in the housing market is now firmly established, with activity levels picking up and house prices recording their fifteenth successive monthly increase in March. Halifax recorded a -1.06% decrease in average house prices in March.

The national average asking prices recorded by Rightmove increased by +1.6% in March. Rightmove recorded a +2.1% increase in average asking prices in London (London average of £552.5k vs. national average of £256.0k)

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Dec 13 to date

Peak Month

Peak to now

Peak to Trough

Halifax

Mar-14 -1.06% 8.46% 2.63%

Aug-07

-10.70%

-22.51%

Nationwide SA

Mar-14 0.45% 9.47% 1.92%

Oct-07

-3.01%

-19.48%

Lreg

Feb-14

0.66% 5.31% 2.02%

Nov-07

-6.42%

-17.12%

Rightmove

Mar-14

1.61% 6.82% 6.01%

Mar-14

0.00%

-16.56%

DCLG SA

Jan-14

1.49% 6.75% 1.49% Jan-14 0.00%

-17.67%

AcadHPI

Feb-14

0.99% 5.96% 1.83%

Feb-14

0.00%

-19.03%

 
graph-1-economic-round-up-aug-2014

Sources: Bloomberg, Land Registry, Acadametrics

UK Regional House Prices Comparison

According to Land Registry’s figures in February, house prices in Wales increased the most (+1.61%) whereas those in North East dropped the most (-1.44%). House prices in London have continued to reach new highs in February.

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

East

Feb-14

0.48%

6.19% -4.93%

East Midlands

Feb-14
-0.10% 4.50% -12.48%

London

Feb-14

0.66%

13.76% 19.39%

North East

Feb-14
-1.44% -1.27% -24.61%

North West

Feb-14

1.21%

2.20% -18.22%

South East

Feb-14
0.70% 7.11% -0.82%

South West

Feb-14
1.02% 4.51% -8.21%

Wales

Feb-14
1.61% 1.70% -14.57%

West Midlands

Feb-14

0.80%

3.60% -12.39%

Yorks and Humber

Feb-14

0.08%

1.22% -18.42%
 
A graph showing the trend for the UK Regional House Prices Comparison

Note: Figures taken from Land Registry’s regional house prices development for England & Wales. Index re-based to 100 at October 2007.
Source: Land Registry

UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume

Mortgage approvals decreased by +5.7% to 70,309 in February, lower than a consensus forecast of 76,300 by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales volume data provided by Land Registry is at a lag and the most recently released data is from December, recording a MoM decrease of -7.1%.

 

Land Reg Sales Volume

BoE Mortgage Approvals

Last Release

Dec-13 Feb-14

Sales Volume

75,182 70,309

MoM % Change

-7.1% -8.4%

YoY % Change

32.6% 33.8%

Peak Month

May-02 Nov-03

Peak Volume

135,515 133,453

Peak to Now % Change

-44.5% -47.3%

Peak to Trough % Change

-80.6% -80.1%
 
A graph showing the trend for the UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume

Sources: Land Registry, Bloomberg

UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey

The Housing Market Survey provided by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors provides an indication to market sentiment. This sentiment measure decreased to 45 in February from 52 in the previous month.

The figure represents the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in price minus those reporting a fall (i.e. if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the unadjusted balance will be 25%).

A graph showing the trend for UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey

Note: Balance = proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall.Source: Bloomberg

UK House Prices Forecast

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasted UK house prices to increase 13.75% by 2017. CEBR’s and other providers’ predictions on house prices between 2014 to 2018 are:

Provider

Date of Forecast

2014

2015

2016

2017
Savills Feb-13 1.50% 2.00% 3.50% 3.50%
Knight Frank Dec-13 7.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00%
OBR Dec-13 5.20% 7.20% 4.80% 3.70%
Hometrack Apr-13 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 4.00%
CEBR Apr-13 2.25% 3.00% 4.00% 4.50%

Source: Savills, Knight Frank, Office for Budget Responsibility, Hometrack, Centre For Economics and Business Research

Ireland House Price Indices

Residential property prices in Dublin decreased in February by -0.59% (cf. -1.31% in January). Nationally residential prices increased by +0.14%; this compared with a decrease of -0.71% in January. Prices for apartments in Dublin rose by +0.17% in February (cf. -0.17% in January) and on a national level apartment prices rose by +0.19% (cf. -0.74% in January).

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

Peak Month

Peak to Now

National All

Feb-14 0.14% 8.07% -46.50%

Sep-07

-46.67%

Dublin All

Feb-14 -0.59% 13.32% -49.51%

Feb-07

-50.04%

National ex Dublin

Feb-14 0.88% 4.22% -46.14%

Sep-07

-46.35%

National Apartments

Feb-14 0.19% 4.27% -55.80%

Feb-07

-56.66%

Dublin Apartments

Feb-14 0.17% 10.48% -52.69%

Feb-07

-54.47%

National Houses

Feb-14 0.28% 8.21% -44.82%

Sep-07

-45.08%

Dublin Houses

Feb-14 -0.56% 13.60% -48.02%

Apr-07

-48.48%

National ex Dublin Houses

Feb-14 1.00% 4.58% -45.12%

Sep-07

-45.41%

 
graph-11-economic-round-up

Source: Central Statistics Office Ireland

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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