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Monthly economic roundup

08-Aug-2013

Welcome to your monthly economic round up e-newsletter. Each month at Kensington we will provide you with market insights and all the relevant financial and economic information we think may be of interest. You can find the market analysis just for you in one handy place, follow the links below.

UK and Ireland Housing Markets

Contents

UK House Price Indices
UK Regional House Prices Comparison
UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume
UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey
UK House Prices Forecast
Ireland House Price Indices

UK House Price Indices

Land Registry’s house price index increased by +0.59% in June, compared with Nationwide’s last month’s release of an increase of +0.27%. Nationwide’s most recent release for July is an increase of +0.84%, higher than a survey conducted by Bloomberg that predicted an increase of +0.4%. Nationwide said that U.K. house price rise provided further evidence of an upturn in the housing market. Halifax recorded a +0.92% increase in average house prices in July.

The national average asking prices recorded by Rightmove increased by +0.34% in July. Rightmove recorded no change in average asking prices in London (London average of £515.4k vs. national average of £253.7k)

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Dec 12 to date

Peak Month

Peak to now

Peak to Trough

Halifax

Jul-13

0.92%

5.74%

3.90%

Aug 07

-15.02%

-22.51%

Nationwide SA

Jul-13

0.84%

3.93%

2.47%

Oct-07

-9.71%

-19.38%

Lreg

Jun-13

0.59%

0.79%

1.31%

Nov-07

-10.64%

-17.02%

Rightmove

Jul-13

0.34%

4.77%

10.79%

Jul-13

0.00%

-15.79%

DCLG SA

May-13

0.28%

2.91%

0.84%

Jan-08

-2.86%

-15.09%

AcadHPI

Jun-13

0.16%

2.49%

1.99%

Jun-13

0.00%

-13.99%

 
graph-44-economic-round-up-jul-2013

Sources: Bloomberg, Land Registry, Acadametrics

UK Regional House Prices Comparison

According to Land Registry’s figures in June, house prices in the London increased the most (+3.06%) whereas those in the North East dropped the most (-2.22%). House prices in London have reached their highest level in June.

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

East

Jun-13

-0.12%

0.13%

-9.81%

East Midlands

Jun-13

-0.17%

0.41%

-15.67%

London

Jun-13

3.06%

6.94%

10.62%

North East

Jun-13

-2.22%

-3.81%

-25.43%

North West

Jun-13

-1.26%

-2.70%

-21.10%

South East

Jun-13

0.32%

0.99%

-7.01%

South West

Jun-13

-0.20%

-0.01%

-11.40%

Wales

Jun-13

2.89%

1.64%

-15.95%

West Midlands

Jun-13

0.77%

0.54%

-14.91%

Yorks and Humber

Jun-13

-0.74%

-2.06%

-19.68%

 
graph-45-economic-round-up-jul-2013

Note: Figures taken from Land Registry’s regional house prices development for England & Wales. Index re-based to 100 at October 2007.
Source: Land Registry

UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume

Mortgage approvals decreased by -0.7% to 57,667 in June, lower than a consensus forecast of 59,700 by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales volume data provided by Land Registry is at a lag and the most recently released data is from April, recording a MoM decrease of -9.2%.

 

Land Reg Sales Volume

BoE Mortgage Approvals

Last Release

Apr-13

Jun-13

Sales Volume

48,367

57,667

MoM % Change

-9.2%

-0.7%

YoY % Change

11.8%

21.5%

Peak Month

May-02

Nov-03

Peak Volume

135,453

133,796

Peak to Now % Change

-64.3%

-56.9%

Peak to Trough % Change

-80.6%

-80.4%

 
graph-46-economic-round-up-jul-2013

Sources: Land Registry, Bloomberg

UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey

The Housing Market Survey provided by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors provides an indication to market sentiment. This sentiment measure increased to 21 in June from 5 in May. This is the highest level the figure has been at in over three years.

The figure reported represents the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in price minus those reporting a fall (i.e. if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the unadjusted balance will be 25%).

graph-47-economic-round-up-jul-2013

Note: Balance = proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall.
Source: Bloomberg

UK House Prices Forecast

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasts UK house prices to increase 12% over the next 4 years. CEBR’s prediction on house prices between 2013 to 2016 is:

Year

2013

2014

2015

2016

Prediction

+2.2%

+2.6%

+2.8%

+3.8%

Source: Centre For Economics and Business Research

Ireland House Price Indices

Residential property prices in Dublin increased in June by +1.69% (cf. +0.51% increase in May). Nationally residential prices increased by +1.23%; this compared with an increase of +0.31% in May. Prices for apartments in Dublin rose by +7.24% in June and on a national level apartment prices rose by +6.37%.

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

Peak Month

Peak to Now

National All

Jun-13

1.23%

1.23%

-49.58%

Sep-07

-49.73%

Dublin All

Jun-13

1.69%

4.15%

-54.77%

Feb-07

-55.24%

National ex Dublin

Jun-13

0.75%

-1.03%

-47.39%

Sep-07

-47.59%

National Apartments

Jun-13

6.37%

5.25%

-58.77%

Feb-07

-59.56%

Dublin Apartments

Jun-13

7.24%

9.67%

-56.53%

Feb-07

-58.16%

National Houses

Jun-13

0.89%

0.89%

-48.10%

Sep-07

-48.33%

Dublin Houses

Jun-13

1.44%

3.59%

-53.51%

Apr-07

-53.92%

National ex Dublin Houses

Jun-13

0.73%

-0.86%

-46.43%

Sep-07

-46.72%

 
graph-48-economic-round-up-jul-2013

Source: Central Statistics Office Ireland

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