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Monthly economic roundup


Welcome to our January monthly economic round up, featuring the latest market insights and all the relevant financial and economic information we think may be of interest. You can find the market analysis just for you in one handy place, follow the links below.

UK and Ireland Housing Markets


UK House Price Indices
UK Regional House Prices Comparison
UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume
UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey
UK House Prices Forecast
Ireland House Price Indices

UK House Price Indices

Land Registry’s house price index increased by +1.10% in December, compared with Nationwide’s last month’s release of a +1.67% rise. Nationwide’s most recent release for January is an increase of +0.71%, in line with a survey conducted by Bloomberg that predicted an increase of +0.6%. Nationwide said the housing market is continuing to gather momentum on the back of further solid gains in employment, record low mortgage rates and rising confidence. Halifax recorded a −0.64% decrease in average house prices in December.

The national average asking prices recorded by Rightmove increased by +0.97% in January. Rightmove recorded a +0.2% increase in average asking prices in London (London average of £514.7k vs. national average of £243.9k).


Last release

Most recent


Dec 12 to date

Peak Month

Peak to now

Peak to Trough


Dec-13 -0.64% 5.71% 5.71%




Nationwide SA

Jan-14 0.71% 8.70% 9.00%





Dec-13 1.10% 4.41% 4.41%





Jan-14 0.97% 6.27% 6.49%





Nov-13 0.48% 5.41% 4.76% Nov-13 0.00%



Dec-13 0.62% 5.22% 5.22%





Sources: Bloomberg, Land Registry, Acadametrics

UK Regional House Prices Comparison

According to Land Registry’s figures in December, house prices in London increased the most (+2.60%) whereas those in Yorks and Humber dropped the most (-1.19%). House prices in London have continued to reach new highs in December.


Last release

Most recent


Oct-07 to date



1.42% 5.17% -6.31%

East Midlands

Dec-13 1.41% 4.09% -12.73%


Dec-13 2.60% 11.20% 16.41%

North East

Dec-13 1.27% -0.06% -24.35%

North West

Dec-13 0.28% 1.71% -19.35%

South East

Dec-13 1.85% 5.92% -2.28%

South West

Dec-13 0.96% 3.62% -8.94%


Dec-13 0.01% 3.48% -15.22%

West Midlands

Dec-13 -0.57% 3.17% -13.66%

Yorks and Humber

Dec-13 -1.19% 0.53% -19.18%

Note: Figures taken from Land Registry’s regional house prices development for England & Wales. Index re-based to 100 at October 2007.
Source: Land Registry

UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume

Mortgage approvals increased by +1.2% to 71,638 in December, lower than a consensus forecast of 72,900 by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales volume data provided by Land Registry is at a lag and the most recently released data is from October, recording a MoM increase of 7.0%.


Land Reg Sales Volume

BoE Mortgage Approvals

Last Release

Oct-13 Dec-13

Sales Volume

71,929 71,638

MoM % Change

7.0% 1.2%

YoY % Change

21.5% 29.3%

Peak Month

May-02 Dec-03

Peak Volume

135,484 133,938

Peak to Now % Change

-46.9% -46.5%

Peak to Trough % Change

-80.6% -80.2%

Sources: Land Registry, Bloomberg

UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey

The Housing Market Survey provided by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors provides an indication to market sentiment. This sentiment measure decreased to 56 in December from 58 in the previous month.

The figure represents the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in price minus those reporting a fall (i.e. if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the unadjusted balance will be 25%).


Note: Balance = proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall.Source: Bloomberg

UK House Prices Forecast

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasted UK house prices to increase 13.75% by 2017. CEBR’s and other providers’ predictions on house prices between 2014 to 2018 are:


Date of Forecast




Savills Feb-13 1.50% 2.00% 3.50% 3.50%
Knight Frank Dec-13 7.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00%
OBR Mar-13 1.60% 3.30% 4.00% 4.00%
Hometrack Dec-12 2.00% 3.00% 3.00%  
CEBR Apr-13 2.25% 3.00% 4.00% 4.50%

Source: Savills, Knight Frank, Office for Budget Responsibility, Hometrack, Centre For Economics and Business Research

Ireland House Price Indices

Residential property prices in Dublin increased in December by +0.29% (cf. +1.34% in November). Nationally residential prices increased by +0.29%; this compared with an increase of +0.58% in November. Prices for apartments in Dublin rose by +3.76% in December (cf. +0.36% in November) and on a national level apartment rose by 2.66% (cf. 0.00% in November).


Last release

Most recent


Oct-07 to date

Peak Month

Peak to Now

National All


0.29% 6.38%




Dublin All

Dec-13 0.29% 15.71%




National ex Dublin

Dec-13 0.15% -0.44%




National Apartments

Dec-13 2.66% 15.14%




Dublin Apartments

Dec-13 3.76% 20.83%




National Houses

Dec-13 0.14% 5.97%




Dublin Houses

Dec-13 0.14% 15.26%




National ex Dublin Houses

Dec-13 0.14% -0.28%





Source: Central Statistics Office Ireland

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