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Monthly economic roundup

06-Mar-2014

Welcome to our February monthly economic round up, featuring the latest market insights and all the relevant financial and economic information we think may be of interest. You can find the market analysis just for you in one handy place, follow the links below.

UK and Ireland Housing Markets

Contents

UK House Price Indices
UK Regional House Prices Comparison
UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume
UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey
UK House Prices Forecast
Ireland House Price Indices

UK House Price Indices

Land Registry’s house price index increased by +0.95% in January, compared with Nationwide’s last month’s release of a +0.71% rise. Nationwide’s most recent release for February is an increase of +0.65%, in line with a survey conducted by Bloomberg that predicted an increase of +0.5%. Nationwide said demand continues to be supported by record low interest rates, improved credit availability and rising consumer confidence thanks to the healthy gains in employment recorded in recent quarters. Halifax recorded a +1.09% increase in average house prices in January.

The national average asking prices recorded by Rightmove increased by +3.3% in February. Rightmove recorded a +5.2% increase in average asking prices in London (London average of £541.3k vs. national average of £252.0k)

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Dec 13 to date

Peak Month

Peak to now

Peak to Trough

Halifax

Jan-14

1.09% 7.84% 1.09%

Aug-07

-12.04%

-22.51%

Nationwide SA

Feb-14

0.65% 9.06% 1.53%

Oct-07

-3.47%

-19.45%

Lreg

Jan-14

0.95% 4.16% 0.95%

Nov-07

-7.34%

-17.12%

Rightmove

Feb-14

3.33% 6.88% 4.33%

Jul-13

-0.68%

-15.79%

DCLG SA

Dec-13

0.69% 5.48% 0.00% Dec-13 0.00%

-16.45%

AcadHPI

Jan-14

0.58% 5.23% 0.58%

Jan-14

0.00%

-16.95%

 
graph-12-economic-round-up

Sources: Bloomberg, Land Registry, Acadametrics

UK Regional House Prices Comparison

According to Land Registry’s figures in January, house prices in North East increased the most (+2.58%) whereas those in Yorks and Humber dropped the most (-1.36%). House prices in London have continued to reach new highs in January.

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

East

Jan-14

0.88%

4.81% -5.47%

East Midlands

Jan-14

0.80%

4.76% -12.46%

London

Jan-14

2.07%

10.92% 18.09%

North East

Jan-14

2.58%

1.90% -23.88%

North West

Jan-14

-0.69%

2.55% -20.19%

South East

Jan-14

2.22%

6.44% -1.11%

South West

Jan-14

0.30%

2.64% -9.17%

Wales

Jan-14

0.39%

0.76% -16.18%

West Midlands

Jan-14

0.49%

1.96% -13.48%

Yorks and Humber

Jan-14

-1.36%

0.27% -19.91%
 
graph-13-economic-round-up

Note: Figures taken from Land Registry’s regional house prices development for England & Wales. Index re-based to 100 at October 2007.
Source: Land Registry

UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume

Mortgage approvals increased by +5.7% to 76,947 in December, higher than a consensus forecast of 74,500 by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales volume data provided by Land Registry is at a lag and the most recently released data is from November, recording a MoM increase of 4.8%.

 

Land Reg Sales Volume

BoE Mortgage Approvals

Last Release

Nov-13 Jan-14

Sales Volume

78,358 76,947

MoM % Change

4.8% 5.7%

YoY % Change

22.5% 42.4%

Peak Month

May-02 Dec-03

Peak Volume

135,510 133,726

Peak to Now % Change

-42.2% -42.5%

Peak to Trough % Change

-80.6% -80.1%
 
graph-14-economic-round-up

Sources: Land Registry, Bloomberg

UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey

The Housing Market Survey provided by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors provides an indication to market sentiment. This sentiment measure decreased to 53 in January from 56 in the previous month.

The figure represents the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in price minus those reporting a fall (i.e. if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the unadjusted balance will be 25%).

graph-4-economic-round-up-aug-2014

Note: Balance = proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall.Source: Bloomberg

UK House Prices Forecast

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasted UK house prices to increase 13.75% by 2017. CEBR’s and other providers’ predictions on house prices between 2014 to 2018 are:

Provider

Date of Forecast

2014

2015

2016

2017
Savills Feb-13 1.50% 2.00% 3.50% 3.50%
Knight Frank Dec-13 7.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00%
OBR Dec-13 5.20% 7.20% 4.80% 3.70%
Hometrack Apr-13 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 4.00%
CEBR Apr-13 2.25% 3.00% 4.00% 4.50%

Source: Savills, Knight Frank, Office for Budget Responsibility, Hometrack, Centre For Economics and Business Research

Ireland House Price Indices

Residential property prices in Dublin decreased in January by -1.31% (cf. +0.29% in December). Nationally residential prices decreased by -0.71%; this compared with an increase of +0.29% in December. Prices for apartments in Dublin dropped by -0.17% in January (cf. +3.76% in December) and on a national level apartment prices dropped by -0.74% (cf. +2.66% in November).

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

Peak Month

Peak to Now

National All

Jan-14 -0.71% 6.27% -46.58%

Sep-07

-46.74%

Dublin All

Jan-14 -1.31% 13.61% -49.21%

Feb-07

-49.74%

National ex Dublin

Jan-14 0.00% 1.18% -46.61%

Sep-07

-46.82%

National Apartments

Jan-14 -0.74% 11.43% -55.88%

Feb-07

-56.74%

Dublin Apartments

Jan-14 -0.17 16.73% -52.77%

Feb-07

-54.55%

National Houses

Jan-14 -0.69% 6.17% -44.98%

Sep-07

-45.23%

Dublin Houses

Jan-14 -1.52% 13.15% -47.73%

Apr-07

-48.19%

National ex Dublin Houses

Jan-14 0.00% 1.15% -45.66%

Sep-07

-45.95%

 
graph-15-economic-round-up

Source: Central Statistics Office Ireland

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