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Monthly economic roundup

08-Jan-2014

Welcome to our December monthly economic round up e-newsletter, featuring the latest market insights and all the relevant financial and economic information we think may be of interest. You can find the market analysis just for you in one handy place, follow the links below.

UK and Ireland Housing Markets

Contents

UK House Price Indices
UK Regional House Prices Comparison
UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume
UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey
UK House Prices Forecast
Ireland House Price Indices

UK House Price Indices

Land Registry’s house price index decreased by -0.05% in November, compared with Nationwide’s last month’s release of an increase of +0.58%. Nationwide’s most recent release for December is an increase of +1.67%, beating a survey conducted by Bloomberg that predicted an increase of +0.7%. Nationwide attributed the continued house price growth to an improving labour market, low interest rates and constrained housing supply with new homes being built 45% lower than pre-crisis levels whilst housing transactions are only down 25%. Halifax recorded a +1.71% increase in average house prices in November.

The national average asking prices recorded by Rightmove decreased by -1.90% in December. Rightmove recorded a -0.7% decrease in average asking prices in London (London average of £513.5k vs. national average of £241.5k)

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Dec 12 to date

Peak Month

Peak to now

Peak to Trough

Halifax

Nov-13

1.71%

8.12%

7.13%

Aug-07

-12.37%

-22.51%

Nationwide SA

Dec-13

1.67%

8.11%

8.11%

Oct-07

-4.92%

-19.40%

Lreg

Nov-13

-0.05%

3.22%

3.15%

Nov-07

-9.00%

-17.09%

Rightmove

Dec-13

-1.90%

5.48%

5.48%

Jul-13

-4.80%

-15.79%

DCLG SA

Oct-13

-0.76%

5.43%

4.25%

Oct-13

0.00%

-15.46%

AcadHPI

Nov-13

0.71%

4.93%

4.67%

Nov-13

0.00%

-16.16%

 
graph-19-economic-round-up

Sources: Bloomberg, Land Registry, Acadametrics

UK Regional House Prices Comparison

According to Land Registry’s figures in November, house prices in London increased the most (+1.52%) whereas those in North East dropped the most (-0.86%). House prices in London have continued to reach new highs in November.

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

East

Nov-13

0.86%

3.09%

-7.73%

East Midlands

Nov-13

0.21%

1.42%

-14.57%

London

Nov-13

1.52%

10.61%

14.29%

North East

Nov-13

0.05%

-1.72%

-25.44%

North West

Nov-13

1.08%

-0.83%

-19.70%

South East

Nov-13

0.26%

3.44%

-4.01%

South West

Nov-13

0.02%

2.07%

-10.04%

Wales

Nov-13

1.09%

3.32%

-15.14%

West Midlands

Nov-13

1.17%

3.15%

-13.78%

Yorks and Humber

Nov-13

0.02%

1.57%

-18.16%

 
graph-20-economic-round-up

Note: Figures taken from Land Registry’s regional house prices development for England & Wales. Index re-based to 100 at October 2007.
Source: Land Registry

UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume

Mortgage approvals increased by +4.5% to 70,758 in November, higher than a consensus forecast of 69,700 by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales volume data provided by Land Registry is at a lag and the most recently released data is from September, recording a MoM decrease of -12.6%.

 

Land Reg Sales Volume

BoE Mortgage Approvals

Last Release

Sep-13

Nov-13

Sales Volume

65,378

70,758

MoM % Change

-12.6% 4.5%

YoY % Change

23.7% 32.2%

Peak Month

May-02

Dec-03

Peak Volume

135,478

133,917

Peak to Now % Change

-51.7%

-47.2%

Peak to Trough % Change

-80.6%

-80.1%

 
graph-21-economic-round-up

Sources: Land Registry, Bloomberg

UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey

The Housing Market Survey provided by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors provides an indication to market sentiment. This sentiment measure increased to 58 in November from 57 in October. This is the highest level the figure has been at since 2003.

The figure represents the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in price minus those reporting a fall (i.e. if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the unadjusted balance will be 25%).

graph-22-economic-round-up

Note: Balance = proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall.Source: Bloomberg

UK House Prices Forecast

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasted UK house prices to increase 15.15% by 2017. CEBR’s and other providers’ predictions on house prices between 2013 to 2018 are:

Provider

Date of Forecast

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017
Savills Feb-13 0.50% 1.50% 2.00% 3.50% 3.50%
Knight Frank Dec-13 7.00% 7.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00%
OBR Mar-13 1.30% 1.60% 3.30% 4.00% 4.00%
Hometrack Dec-12 -1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00%  
CEBR Apr-13 1.40% 2.25% 3.00% 4.00% 4.50%

Source: Savills, Knight Frank, Office for Budget Responsibility, Hometrack, Centre For Economics and Business Research

Ireland House Price Indices

Residential property prices in Dublin increased in November by +1.34% (cf. +2.28% in October). Nationally residential prices increased by +0.58%; this compared with an increase of +1.76% in October. Prices for apartments in Dublin rose by +0.36% in November (cf. +5.89% in October) and on a national level apartment prices were flat (cf. +3.34% in October).

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

Peak Month

Peak to Now

National All

Nov-13

0.58%

5.60%

-46.35%

Sep-07

-46.51%

Dublin All

Nov-13

1.34%

13.83%

-48.69%

Feb-07

-49.22%

National ex Dublin

Nov-13

0.00%

-0.58%

-46.69%

Sep-07

-46.89%

National Apartments

Nov-13

0.00%

15.10%

-56.71%

Feb-07

-57.55%

Dublin Apartments

Nov-13

0.36%

20.73%

-54.40%

Feb-07

-56.12%

National Houses

Nov-13

0.55%

5.21%

-44.67%

Sep-07

-44.92%

Dublin Houses

Nov-13

1.40%

13.13%

-47.00%

Apr-07

-47.46%

National ex Dublin Houses

Nov-13

0.00%

-0.43%

-45.74%

Sep-07

-46.03%

 
graph-23-economic-round-up

Source: Central Statistics Office Ireland

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