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Monthly economic roundup

13-Sep-2013

Welcome to our latest monthly economic round up e-newsletter, featuring the latest market insights and all the relevant financial and economic information we think may be of interest. You can find the market analysis just for you in one handy place, follow the links below.

UK and Ireland Housing Markets

Contents

UK House Price Indices
UK Regional House Prices Comparison
UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume
UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey
UK House Prices Forecast
Ireland House Price Indices

UK House Price Indices

Land Registry’s house price index increased by +0.91% in July, compared with Nationwide’s last month’s release of an increase of +0.84%. Nationwide’s most recent release for August is an increase of +0.69%, higher than a survey conducted by Bloomberg that predicted an increase of +0.6%. Nationwide said that U.K. house prices were bolstered by an improvement in the availability and reduced cost of credit, with the recent upturn in activity driven by first time buyers. Halifax recorded a +0.36% increase in average house prices in August.

 

The national average asking prices recorded by Rightmove decreased by -1.74% in August. Rightmove recorded a -2.8% reduction in average asking prices in London (London average of £501k vs. national average of £249.2k).

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Dec 12 to date

Peak Month

Peak to now

Peak to Trough

Halifax

Aug-13

0.36%

6.31%

4.28%

Aug-07

-14.71%

-22.51%

Nationwide SA

Aug-13

0.69%

3.40%

3.18%

Oct-07

-9.10%

-19.38%

Lreg

Jul-13

0.91%

0.80%

2.24%

Nov-07

-9.82%

-17.02%

Rightmove

Aug-13

-1.74%

5.52%

8.86%

Jul-13

-1.74%

-15.79%

DCLG SA

Jun-13

1.28%

3.05%

2.13%

Jan-08

-1.62%

-15.09%

AcadHPI

Jul-13

0.07%

2.56%

2.06%

Jul-13

0.00%

-14.05%

 
graph-39-economic-round-up

Sources: Bloomberg, Land Registry, Acadametrics

UK Regional House Prices Comparison

According to Land Registry’s figures in July, house prices in the North East increased the most (+3.50%) whereas those in Wales dropped the most (-1.88%). House prices in London have continued to reach new highs in July.

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

East

Jul-13

1.53%

1.31%

-8.43%

East Midlands

Jul-13

1.33%

0.56%

-14.54%

London

Jul-13

0.47%

6.25%

11.14%

North East

Jul-13

3.50%

-0.10%

-22.82%

North West

Jul-13

0.25%

-1.65%

-20.90%

South East

Jul-13

1.41%

1.44%

-5.70%

South West

Jul-13

0.67%

0.89%

-10.81%

Wales

Jul-13

-1.88%

-2.32%

-17.53%

West Midlands

Jul-13

0.31%

0.63%

-14.65%

Yorks and Humber

Jul-13

1.00%

-1.82%

-18.88%

 
graph-40-economic-round-up

Note: Figures taken from Land Registry’s regional house prices development for England & Wales. Index re-based to 100 at October 2007. Source: Land Registry

UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume

Mortgage approvals increased by +5.1% to 60,624 in July, higher than a consensus forecast of 58,800 by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales volume data provided by Land Registry is at a lag and the most recently released data is from May, recording a MoM increase of 29.5%.

 

Land Reg Sales Volume

BoE Mortgage Approvals

Last Release

May-13

Jul-13

Sales Volume

62,651

60,624

MoM % Change

29.5%

5.1%

YoY % Change

19.3%

29.5%

Peak Month

May-02

Nov-03

Peak Volume

135,453

133,796

Peak to Now % Change

-53.7%

-54.7%

Peak to Trough % Change

-80.6%

-80.4%

 
graph-41-economic-round-up

Sources: Land Registry, Bloomberg

UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey

The Housing Market Survey provided by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors provides an indication to market sentiment. This sentiment measure increased to 36 in July from 21 in June. This is the highest level the figure has been at since 2006.

 

The figure represents the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in price minus those reporting a fall (i.e. if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the unadjusted balance will be 25%).

graph-42-economic-round-up

Note: Balance = proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall.Source: Bloomberg

UK House Prices Forecast

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasts UK house prices to increase 12% over the next 4 years. CEBR’s prediction on house prices between 2013 to 2016 is:

Year

2013

2014

2015

2016

Prediction

+2.2%

+2.6%

+2.8%

+3.8%

Source: Centre For Economics and Business Research

Ireland House Price Indices

Residential property prices in Dublin increased in July by +3.32% (cf. +1.69% in June). Nationally residential prices increased by +1.22%; this compared with an increase of +1.23% in June. Prices for apartments in Dublin pared back by -2.25% in July (cf. +7.24% in June) and on a national level apartment prices pared back by -0.80% (cf. +6.37% in June).

 

Last release

Most recent

YoY

Oct-07 to date

Peak Month

Peak to Now

National All

Jul-13

1.22%

2.31%

-48.96%

Sep-07

-49.12%

Dublin All

Jul-13

3.32%

7.99%

-53.27%

Feb-07

-53.75%

National ex Dublin

Jul-13

-1.15%

-1.46%

-47.47%

Sep-07

-47.67%

National Apartments

Jul-13

-0.80%

8.52%

-59.09%

Feb-07

-59.89%

Dublin Apartments

Jul-13

-2.25%

11.56%

-57.50%

Feb-07

-59.11%

National Houses

Jul-13

1.47%

2.06%

-47.34%

Sep-07

-47.58%

Dublin Houses

Jul-13

3.62%

7.52%

-51.83%

Apr-07

-52.25%

National ex Dublin Houses

Jul-13

-0.14%

-1.43%

-46.51%

Sep-07

-46.80%

 
graph-43-economic-round-up-aug-2013

Source: Central Statistics Office Ireland

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