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Monthly economic roundup


Welcome to our October monthly economic round up, featuring the latest market insights and all the relevant financial and economic information we think may be of interest. You can find the market analysis just for you in one handy place, follow the links below.

UK and Ireland Housing Markets


UK House Price Indices
UK Regional House Prices Comparison
UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume
UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey
UK House Prices Forecast

UK House Price Indices

Land Registry’s house price index decreased by -0.25% in September, compared to a -0.13% decrease from Nationwide and a +0.58% increase from Halifax. Nationwide’s most recent release for October shows an increase of +0.53%, in line with a survey conducted by Bloomberg that predicted an increase of +0.3%. Nationwide said that a variety of indicators suggest that the market has lost momentum, but broader economic indicators remain positive.

The national average asking prices recorded by Rightmove increased by +2.55% in October. Rightmove recorded a +7.00% increase in average asking prices in London (London average of £596.7k vs. national average of £271.7k).


Last release

Most recent


Dec 13 to date

Peak Month

Peak to now

Peak to Trough


Sep-14 0.58% 9.51% 7.77% Aug-07 -6.22% -22.51%

Nationwide SA

Oct-14 0.53% 8.98% 6.67% Oct-14 0.00% -20.64%


Sep-14 -0.25% 7.20% 6.60% Nov-07 -2.22% -17.15%


Oct-14 2.55% 7.59% 12.47% Jun-14 -0.23% -21.53%


Aug-14 0.53% 11.73% 10.19% Aug-14 0.00% -24.17%


Sep-14 0.51% 10.60% 8.36% Sep-14 0.00% -24.27%
Investec meld Sep-14 -0.25% 7.20% 6.60% Nov-07 -2.22% -17.15%

Sources: Bloomberg, Land Registry, Acadametrics

UK Regional House Prices Comparison

According to Land Registry’s figures in September, house prices in East Anglia increased the most, by +1.38%; whereas those in Yorks and Humber dropped the most, falling by -2.25%.


Last release

Most recent


Oct-07 to date

East Anglia

Sep-14 1.38% 10.91% 2.34%

East Midlands

Sep-14 -0.82% 6.05% -9.51%


Sep-14 -0.69% 18.40% 32.84%

North East

Sep-14 -0.30% 1.60% -22.02%

North West

Sep-14 -0.46% 4.30% -16.78%

South East

Sep-14 -0.16% 9.72% 5.17%

South West

Sep-14 0.67% 7.11% -3.99%


Sep-14 0.39% 4.29% -14.54%

West Midlands

Sep-14 -1.34% 4.25% -11.29%

Yorks and Humber

Sep-14 -2.25% 1.37% -16.78%

Note: Figures taken from Land Registry’s regional house prices development for England & Wales. Index re-based to 100 at October 2007. Source: Land Registry

UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume

Mortgage approvals decreased by -4.35% to 61,267 in September, slightly lower than a consensus forecast of 62,000 by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales volume data provided by Land Registry is at a lag and the most recently released data is from July, recording a MoM increase of +2.53%.


Land Reg Sales Volume

BoE Mortgage Approvals

Last Release

Jul-14 Sep-14

Sales Volume

79,214 61,267

MoM % Change

2.5% -4.4%

YoY % Change

7.4% -8.7%

Peak Month

May-02 Nov-03

Peak Volume

135,547 133,620

Peak to Now % Change

-41.6% -54.1%

Peak to Trough % Change

-80.6% -80.1%

Sources: Land Registry, Bloomberg

UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey

The Housing Market Survey, provided by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, provides an indication of market sentiment. This sentiment measure decreased to 30 in September from 39 in August.

The figure represents the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in price minus those reporting a fall (i.e. if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the unadjusted balance will be 25%).


Note: Balance = proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall.Source: Bloomberg

UK House Prices Forecast

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasted UK house prices to increase 13.75% by 2017. CEBR’s and other providers’ predictions on house prices between 2014 to 2018 are:


Date of Forecast




Savills Feb-13 1.50% 2.00% 3.50% 3.50%
Knight Frank Dec-13 7.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00%
OBR Dec-13 5.20% 7.20% 4.80% 3.70%
Hometrack Apr-13 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 4.00%
CEBR Apr-13 2.25% 3.00% 4.00% 4.50%

Source: Savills, Knight Frank, Office for Budget Responsibility, Hometrack, Centre For Economics and Business Research


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