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Monthly Economic Roundup


Welcome to our June monthly economic round up, featuring the latest market insights and all the relevant financial and economic information we think may be of interest. You can find the market analysis just for you in one handy place, follow the links below.

UK and Ireland Housing Markets


UK House Price Indices
UK Regional House Prices Comparison
UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume
UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey
UK House Prices Forecast

UK House Price Indices

Land Registry’s house price index increased by +0.35% in May, compared to Nationwide’s last month's figure of +0.71%. Nationwide’s most recent release for June shows an increase of +0.98%, in line with a survey conducted by Bloomberg that predicted an increase of +0.5%. Nationwide said that in seasonally adjusted terms house prices reached their 2007 peak in Q2, just as UK economic output is likely to have surpassed the high water mark reached before the financial crisis. Halifax recorded a +3.90% increase in average house prices in May.

The national average asking prices recorded by Rightmove increased by +0.09% in June. Rightmove recorded a -0.50% decrease in average asking prices in London (London average of £589.8k vs. national average of £243.9k).


Last release

Most recent


Dec 13 to date

Peak Month

Peak to now

Peak to Trough


May-14 3.90% 10.62% 6.21%




Nationwide SA

Jun-14 0.98% 11.87% 5.17%






0.35% 6.68% 3.33%






0.09% 7.68% 12.72%






3.19% 9.91% 4.77% Apr-14 0.00%




0.88% 8.54% 4.48%





Sources: Bloomberg, Land Registry, Acadametrics

UK Regional House Prices Comparison

According to Land Registry’s figures in May, house prices in London increased the most, by +2.48%; whereas those in Yorks and Humber dropped the most, falling by -0.90%. House prices in London have continued to reach new highs in May. At the same time, the South East region has regained its 2007 peak level.



Last release

Most recent


Oct-07 to date

East Anglia

May-14 0.68% 8.43% -2.09%

East Midlands

May-14 1.55% 6.54% -10.23%


May-14 2.48% 18.47% 26.80%

North East

May-14 -0.34% 0.87% -22.97%

North West

May-14 -0.55% 1.34% -19.17%

South East

May-14 0.55% 8.39% 0.39%

South West

May-14 0.64% 4.74% -7.03%


May-14 -0.18% 2.35% -16.23%

West Midlands

May-14 -0.14% 4.26% -12.12%

Yorks and Humber

May-14 -0.90% 2.92% -16.67%

Note: Figures taken from Land Registry’s regional house prices development for England & Wales. Index re-based to 100 at October 2007.
Source: Land Registry

UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume

Mortgage approvals decreased by -1.7% to 61,707 in May, in line with a consensus forecast of 61,800 by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales volume data provided by Land Registry is at a lag and the most recently released data is from March, recording a MoM decrease of -0.3%.


Land Reg Sales Volume

BoE Mortgage Approvals

Last Release

Mar-14 May-14

Sales Volume

63,587 61,707

MoM % Change

-0.3% -1.7%

YoY % Change

16.2% 4.4%

Peak Month

May-02 Nov-03

Peak Volume

135,527 133,439

Peak to Now % Change

-53.1% -53.8%

Peak to Trough % Change

-80.6% -80.1%

Sources: Land Registry, Bloomberg

UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey

The Housing Market Survey, provided by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, provides an indication of market sentiment. This sentiment measure increased to 57 in May from 55 in April.

The figure represents the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in price minus those reporting a fall (i.e. if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the unadjusted balance will be 25%).


Note: Balance = proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall.
Source: Bloomberg

UK House Prices Forecast

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasted UK house prices to increase 13.75% by 2017. CEBR’s and other providers’ predictions on house prices between 2014 to 2018 are:


Date of Forecast




Savills Feb-13 1.50% 2.00% 3.50% 3.50%
Knight Frank Dec-13 7.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00%
OBR Dec-13 5.20% 7.20% 4.80% 3.70%
Hometrack Apr-13 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 4.00%
CEBR Apr-13 2.25% 3.00% 4.00% 4.50%

Source: Savills, Knight Frank, Office for Budget Responsibility, Hometrack, Centre For Economics and Business Research


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