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Monthly Economic Roundup


Welcome to our July monthly economic round up, featuring the latest market insights and all the relevant financial and economic information we think may be of interest. You can find the market analysis just for you in one handy place, follow the links below.

UK and Ireland Housing Markets


UK House Price Indices
UK Regional House Prices Comparison
UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume
UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey
UK House Prices Forecast

UK House Price Indices

Land Registry’s house price index decreased by -0.01% in June, compared to a -0.59% decrease from Halifax and a +0.98% rise from Nationwide. Nationwide’s most recent release for July shows an increase of +0.05%, slightly behind a survey conducted by Bloomberg that predicted an increase of +0.5%. Nationwide said the slowdown [of the pace of growth] was not entirely unexpected, given mounting evidence of a moderation in activity in recent months; mortgage approvals declined by almost 20% between January and May, and there has also been some softening in forward looking indicators, such as new buyer enquiries.

The national average asking prices recorded by Rightmove decreased by -0.77% in July. Rightmove recorded a -0.40% decrease in average asking prices in London (London average of £587.2k vs. national average of £270.2k).


Last release

Most recent


Dec 13 to date

Peak Month

Peak to now

Peak to Trough


Jun-14 -0.59% 9.42% 5.64% Aug-07 -8.08% -22.51%

Nationwide SA

Jul-14 0.05% 10.64% 5.17% Jul-14 0.00% -19.53%


Jun-14 -0.01% 6.37% 3.35% Nov-07 -5.21% -17.16%


Jul-14 -0.77% 6.49% 11.86% Jun-14 -0.77% -21.53%


May-14 0.76% 10.43% 5.57% May-14 0.00% -20.85%


Jun-14 0.71% 9.56% 5.47% Jun-14 0.00% -22.25%

Sources: Bloomberg, Land Registry, Acadametrics

UK Regional House Prices Comparison

According to Land Registry’s figures in June, house prices in West Midlands increased the most, by +1.86%; whereas those in Yorks and Humber dropped the most, falling by -1.27%. House prices in London have continued to reach new highs in June. Outside London the South East is still the only region to have regained its 2007 peak.


Last release

Most recent


Oct-07 to date

East Anglia

Jun-14 -0.35% 7.95% -2.45%

East Midlands

Jun-14 -1.00% 6.39% -11.25%


Jun-14 0.12% 16.40% 26.20%

North East

Jun-14 -1.03% 0.77% -23.51%

North West

Jun-14 -0.36% 2.18% -19.32%

South East

Jun-14 0.65% 7.84% 1.21%

South West

Jun-14 -0.87% 5.42% -6.69%


Jun-14 -0.27% 2.67% -15.81%

West Midlands

Jun-14 1.86% 4.69% -11.24%

Yorks and Humber

Jun-14 -1.27% 3.43% -17.19%

Note: Figures taken from Land Registry’s regional house prices development for England & Wales. Index re-based to 100 at October 2007.
Source: Land Registry

UK Mortgage Approvals & Sales Volume

Mortgage approvals increased by +8.37% to 67,196 in June, higher than a consensus forecast of 63,000 by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales volume data provided by Land Registry is at a lag and the most recently released data is from April, recording a MoM increase of +1.25%.


Land Reg Sales Volume

BoE Mortgage Approvals

Last Release

Apr-14 Jun-14

Sales Volume

66,659 67,196

MoM % Change

1.2% 8.4%

YoY % Change

30.6% 14.2%

Peak Month

May-02 Nov-03

Peak Volume

135,533 133,477

Peak to Now % Change

-50.8% -49.7%

Peak to Trough % Change

-80.6% -80.1%

Sources: Land Registry, Bloomberg

UK Market Sentiment – RICS Housing Market Survey

The Housing Market Survey, provided by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, provides an indication of market sentiment. This sentiment measure decreased to 53 in June from 56 in May.

The figure represents the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in price minus those reporting a fall (i.e. if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the unadjusted balance will be 25%).


Note: Balance = proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall.
Source: Bloomberg

UK House Prices Forecast

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasted UK house prices to increase 13.75% by 2017. CEBR’s and other providers’ predictions on house prices between 2014 to 2018 are:


Date of Forecast




Savills Feb-13 1.50% 2.00% 3.50% 3.50%
Knight Frank Dec-13 7.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00%
OBR Dec-13 5.20% 7.20% 4.80% 3.70%
Hometrack Apr-13 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 4.00%
CEBR Apr-13 2.25% 3.00% 4.00% 4.50%

Source: Savills, Knight Frank, Office for Budget Responsibility, Hometrack, Centre For Economics and Business Research


Source: Central Statistics Office Ireland

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